bitcoin ·
Glassnode notes 4M Bitcoin bought above $85K could cap recovery
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode indicates that approximately 4 million Bitcoin held by long-term holders were acquired between $85,000 and $118,000, predominantly during 2025.
This group of long-term holders, defined by Glassnode as those possessing coins for over 155 days, currently holds losses on these 4 million BTC. If the price ascends back toward that range, many of these holders might initiate sales, according to the firm's analysis.
Bloomberg Intelligence places the average cost basis for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF participants just under $82,000, while Bitcoin is presently trading near $81,600.
The Federal Reserve decided to maintain its benchmark rate between 3.75% and 4.00% on Wednesday, a 10-2 vote, despite traders previously assigning odds exceeding 70% to a December rate increase.
Glassnode noted that over half of the coins held by long-term holders were purchased at prices exceeding the current market value. Furthermore, the $85K level has repeatedly pulled Bitcoin back this year, with the asset closing above it on only five days since January.
ETF holders are also near a break-even point. James Seyffart, an ETF analyst from Bloomberg Intelligence, estimated the average price U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs paid for their coins at $81,500, with his chart showing ETF holders' average unrealized loss at approximately $2.63 billion as of Monday.
Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey, stated that "What truly constrains Bitcoin's performance," is the "persistently high U.S. Treasury yields and real interest rates, which are significantly raising the opportunity cost for investors holding risk assets."
Market participants are observing flows; U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of roughly $424 million from Monday through Wednesday, following an outflow of $635 million on October 22, per SoSoValue data.
This dynamic suggests that while institutional capital flows are being monitored, the market's ability to sustain recovery hinges on overcoming selling pressure near $85,000, as noted by both Glassnode and Sun.
The current market environment reflects a broader trend where macroeconomic factors, such as Treasury yields and interest rates, are influencing the risk appetite of institutional investors in digital assets.
Why it matters
The concentration of long-term holders near the current price suggests potential selling pressure if Bitcoin rallies toward their break-even points. This dynamic, combined with ETF holder losses, indicates that sustained recovery depends on new buying interest overcoming existing seller supply. Regulators and exchanges are watching these price levels as indicators of market strength.
